Inca Aruba vs Águila preview
Inca Aruba faces Águila with a 16% chance of winning compared to Águila's 63%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with expected goals of 1.08 for Inca Aruba and 2.25 for Águila.
Águila's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Inca Aruba has struggled with 5 losses in their last 6 games. This disparity could lead to Águila dominating the match, but if Inca Aruba finds a way to score, it could impact the predictions for Over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 60%.
Inca Aruba vs Águila: model vs market
| Source | Inca Aruba | Draw | Águila |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 21% | 63% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Inca Aruba and Águila expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Inca Aruba / Águila)
- 0.69 / 1.57
- Defence rating (Inca Aruba / Águila)
- 1.11 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inca Aruba vs Águila score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inca Aruba goals. Columns: Águila goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inca Aruba vs Águila goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inca Aruba vs Águila
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 16% | 6.20 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Águila | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inca Aruba or draw) | 37% | 2.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Águila) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Inca Aruba and Águila recent form
Inca Aruba
0W 2D 4L
Águila
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inca Aruba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-4
- Win rate
- 30%
- Goals for / match
- 0.90
- Goals against / match
- 1.70
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 4 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Águila away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 10
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inca Aruba at home only, Águila away only.
Inca Aruba vs Águila head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Inca Aruba 0 · draws 0 · Águila 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Águila | 3-1 | Inca Aruba | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 21 fixtures
- Municipal Limeño v Fuerte San Francisco — match page 2026-11-05
- Firpo vs Isidro Metapán — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Inter vs Cacahuatique 2026-11-14
- Alianza v FAS — match page 2026-11-15
- Platense vs Atletico Balboa — team news & stats 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Inca Aruba, previous: Atletico Balboa – Inca Aruba, 2026-11-12
- Águila, previous: Águila vs Municipal Limeño prediction