Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba preview
Atletico Balboa faces Inca Aruba with a 50% chance of winning compared to Inca Aruba's 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, which occurs 13% of the time in our model. Atletico Balboa has an expected goals figure of 1.48, while Inca Aruba sits at 0.90.
However, the match could see different outcomes. With 42% likelihood for Over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, there is potential for more action than predicted. Recent form shows Atletico Balboa with two wins in their last six matches, while Inca Aruba has only one win in their last six. This inconsistency could influence the final result.
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Balboa | Draw | Inca Aruba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Market | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Published | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Balboa, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Balboa | 1.71 | 1.70 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.58 | 3.72 | +0.14 |
| Inca Aruba | 4.07 | 4.20 | +0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Balboa and Inca Aruba expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Atletico Balboa / Inca Aruba)
- 1.13 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Atletico Balboa / Inca Aruba)
- 1.17 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Balboa goals. Columns: Inca Aruba goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Inca Aruba | 22% | 4.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Balboa or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Inca Aruba) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Balboa win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Balboa and Inca Aruba recent form
Atletico Balboa
3W 1D 2L
Inca Aruba
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Balboa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.78
- Goals against / match
- 0.89
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 9
- They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
Inca Aruba away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-6
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.78
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 4 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 19 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Balboa at home only, Inca Aruba away only.
Atletico Balboa vs Inca Aruba head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Balboa 0 · draws 0 · Inca Aruba 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Inca Aruba | 1-0 | Atletico Balboa | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 20 fixtures
- Cacahuatique vs Firpo — team news & stats 2026-11-10
- Isidro Metapán vs Platense 2026-11-11
- Fuerte San Francisco v Alianza — match page 2026-11-11
- FAS vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-11-12
- Águila vs Municipal Limeño 2026-11-12
Before and after this match
- Atletico Balboa, previous: Municipal Limeño v Atletico Balboa analysis
- Atletico Balboa, next: Platense – Atletico Balboa, 2026-11-15
- Inca Aruba, previous: Inca Aruba v Isidro Metapán analysis
- Inca Aruba, next: Inca Aruba v Águila analysis