Águila vs Municipal Limeño preview
In the fixture between Águila and Municipal Limeño, the 1X2 probabilities show Águila at 59% to win, compared to Municipal Limeño at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. Águila has been in strong form with 6 consecutive matches without a loss, while Municipal Limeño has struggled, drawing 3 and losing 2 of their last 5 matches.
The model predicts a high chance of goals, with 77% for Over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score. However, if Municipal Limeño can improve their recent form, the expected goals of 2.52 for Águila and 1.52 for Municipal Limeño could shift the match dynamics.
Águila vs Municipal Limeño: model vs market
| Source | Águila | Draw | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 18% | 23% |
| Market | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Published | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Edge | 0% | -2% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.88 vs 1.86.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Águila vs Municipal Limeño odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Águila, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Águila | 1.90 | 1.58 | -0.32 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.75 | +0.40 |
| Municipal Limeño | 3.47 | 5.05 | +1.58 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Águila and Municipal Limeño expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.74
- Attack rating (Águila / Municipal Limeño)
- 1.57 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Águila / Municipal Limeño)
- 1.14 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Águila vs Municipal Limeño score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Águila goals. Columns: Municipal Limeño goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Águila vs Municipal Limeño goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Águila vs Municipal Limeño
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Municipal Limeño | 19% | 5.17 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85% | 1.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 15% | 6.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Águila or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Municipal Limeño) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Águila win by 2+ | 40% | 2.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Águila and Municipal Limeño recent form
Águila
4W 1D 1L
Municipal Limeño
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Águila at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 19 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Municipal Limeño away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-5
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 10
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 20 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Águila at home only, Municipal Limeño away only.
Águila vs Municipal Limeño head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Águila 7 · draws 1 · Municipal Limeño 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Municipal Limeño | 0-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-05 | Municipal Limeño | 2-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-08 | Águila | 1-0 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-19 | Municipal Limeño | 1-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-08-17 | Águila | 2-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2025-05-03 | Municipal Limeño | 0-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-03-09 | Águila | 0-2 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2024-11-25 | Municipal Limeño | 0-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2024-09-19 | Águila | 3-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2024-04-07 | Municipal Limeño | 0-1 | Águila | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 20 fixtures
- Cacahuatique vs Firpo — team news & stats 2026-11-10
- Isidro Metapán vs Platense 2026-11-11
- Fuerte San Francisco v Alianza — match page 2026-11-11
- FAS vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-11-12
- Atletico Balboa v Inca Aruba — match page 2026-11-12
Before and after this match
- Águila, previous: Alianza – Águila, 2026-11-08
- Águila, next: Inca Aruba v Águila analysis
- Municipal Limeño, previous: Municipal Limeño v Atletico Balboa analysis