Cardiff vs West Ham preview
In the upcoming match between Cardiff and West Ham, the 1X2 probabilities show West Ham at 50%, while Cardiff is at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% likelihood.
The data suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 76%. Cardiff's expected goals stand at 1.81, while West Ham's is higher at 2.35. However, a draw or a lower-scoring game could challenge these predictions, especially given Cardiff's recent form of W-D-W-L-W-L compared to West Ham's L-W-W-D-D-L.
Cardiff vs West Ham: model vs market
| Source | Cardiff | Draw | West Ham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 21% | 49% |
| Market | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Published | 29% | 23% | 48% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.78.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cardiff vs West Ham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on West Ham, 6 snapshots since 2026-11-01.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 3.40 | 3.25 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.03 | -0.07 |
| West Ham | 1.88 | 2.00 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cardiff and West Ham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.06
- Attack rating (Cardiff / West Ham)
- 1.10 / 1.65
- Defence rating (Cardiff / West Ham)
- 1.14 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cardiff vs West Ham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cardiff goals. Columns: West Ham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cardiff vs West Ham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cardiff vs West Ham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 29% | 3.41 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 | |
| West Ham | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.33 |
| No | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cardiff or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or West Ham) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win by 2+ | 30% | 3.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cardiff and West Ham recent form
Cardiff
3W 1D 2L
West Ham
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cardiff at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Ham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cardiff at home only, West Ham away only.
Injuries & availability
Cardiff absences
-
C. Chambers
knee injury
- C. Robinson inactive
-
D. Lawlor
hamstring injury
- K. Bielik inactive
West Ham absences
- K. Lamadrid injury
-
K. Mavropanos
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Cardiff vs West Ham head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Cardiff 2 · draws 0 · West Ham 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-09 | Cardiff | 2-0 | West Ham | Premier League |
| 2018-12-04 | West Ham | 3-1 | Cardiff | Premier League |
| 2014-01-11 | Cardiff | 0-2 | West Ham | Premier League |
| 2013-09-24 | West Ham | 3-2 | Cardiff | League Cup |
| 2013-08-17 | West Ham | 2-0 | Cardiff | Premier League |
| 2012-05-07 | West Ham | 3-0 | Cardiff | Championship |
| 2012-05-03 | Cardiff | 0-2 | West Ham | Championship |
| 2012-03-04 | Cardiff | 0-2 | West Ham | Championship |
| 2011-08-07 | West Ham | 0-1 | Cardiff | Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Watford vs Lincoln 2026-11-03
- Preston vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- Derby v Norwich — match page 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Wrexham v Middlesbrough — match page 2026-11-04
- Bristol City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers — team news & stats 2026-11-04
Before and after this match
- Cardiff, previous: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Cardiff, 2026-10-31
- Cardiff, next: Cardiff v Burnley analysis
- West Ham, previous: West Ham vs West Brom prediction
- West Ham, next: Blackburn v West Ham analysis