Derby vs Norwich preview
In the Championship fixture between Derby and Norwich, the 1X2 probabilities show Norwich at 47% to win, compared to Derby's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of Derby at 1.41 and Norwich at 2.04.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are projected at 67%. However, Derby's recent form of L-D-L-L-D-D could impact their performance, while Norwich has a mixed record with W-W-L-L-L-L. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Derby vs Norwich: model vs market
| Source | Derby | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 23% | 51% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Published | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Derby vs Norwich odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Norwich, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 3.21 | 3.45 | +0.24 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.57 | +0.02 |
| Norwich | 2.08 | 2.00 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Derby and Norwich expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (Derby / Norwich)
- 0.72 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Derby / Norwich)
- 1.38 / 1.36
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Derby vs Norwich score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Derby goals. Columns: Norwich goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Derby vs Norwich goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 67%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Derby vs Norwich
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 27% | 3.74 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Norwich | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67% | 1.50 |
| No | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Derby or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Norwich) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Norwich win by 2+ | 31% | 3.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Derby and Norwich recent form
Derby
0W 3D 3L
Norwich
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Derby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Derby at home only, Norwich away only.
Injuries & availability
Derby absences
-
C. Forsyth
knee injury
- C. Taylor injury
-
D. Murkin
hamstring injury
-
E. Cashin
inactive
- J. Ward inactive
-
L. Travis
ankle injury
-
M. Clarke
calf injury
-
P. Agyemang
achilles tendon injury
- S. Langas injury
Norwich absences
-
A. Ahmed
knee injury
- G. Forsyth lacking match fitness
- K. McLean inactive
-
M. Toure
shoulder injury
- P. A. Diallo injury
- P. Mattsson health problems
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Derby vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Derby 4 · draws 3 · Norwich 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Norwich | 2-1 | Derby | England Championship |
| 2025-10-21 | Derby | 1-0 | Norwich | England Championship |
| 2025-02-08 | Norwich | 1-1 | Derby | Championship |
| 2024-09-28 | Derby | 2-3 | Norwich | Championship |
| 2021-04-10 | Derby | 0-1 | Norwich | Championship |
| 2020-10-03 | Norwich | 0-1 | Derby | Championship |
| 2018-12-29 | Norwich | 3-4 | Derby | Championship |
| 2018-10-03 | Derby | 1-1 | Norwich | Championship |
| 2018-02-10 | Derby | 1-1 | Norwich | Championship |
| 2017-10-28 | Norwich | 1-2 | Derby | Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- QPR vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Charlton vs Bolton 2026-11-03
- Portsmouth v Swansea — match page 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Derby, previous: Millwall – Derby, 2026-10-31
- Derby, next: Derby – Bolton, 2026-11-06
- Norwich, previous: Norwich v Watford analysis
- Norwich, next: Bristol City v Norwich analysis