Birmingham vs Millwall preview
In the match between Birmingham and Millwall, the 1X2 probabilities show Birmingham at 50% to win, while both a draw and a Millwall victory sit at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with expected goals of 2.05 for Birmingham and 1.24 for Millwall.
Birmingham's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Millwall has 2 wins in the same span. The model suggests a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 63%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating potential unpredictability in the outcome.
Birmingham vs Millwall: model vs market
| Source | Birmingham | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.97, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Birmingham vs Millwall odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Birmingham, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 2.00 | 1.92 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Millwall | 3.50 | 3.75 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Birmingham and Millwall expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Birmingham / Millwall)
- 1.30 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Birmingham / Millwall)
- 0.86 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Birmingham vs Millwall score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Birmingham goals. Columns: Millwall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Birmingham vs Millwall goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Birmingham vs Millwall
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 50% | 1.98 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Millwall | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Birmingham or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Millwall) | 50% | 2.02 | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Birmingham and Millwall recent form
Birmingham
4W 1D 1L
Millwall
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Birmingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Birmingham at home only, Millwall away only.
Injuries & availability
Birmingham absences
- A. Priske health problems
-
M. Leonard
achilles tendon injury
- Paik Seung-Ho health problems
Millwall absences
-
C. De Norre
muscle injury
- F. Marschall injury
-
J. Metcalfe
yellow cards
-
L. Jensen
muscle injury
-
M. Luongo
knee injury
-
M. Servais
inactive
- T. Arconte ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Birmingham vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham 2 · draws 4 · Millwall 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Millwall | 3-0 | Birmingham | England Championship |
| 2025-11-04 | Birmingham | 4-0 | Millwall | England Championship |
| 2024-03-09 | Millwall | 1-0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2023-09-02 | Birmingham | 1-1 | Millwall | Championship |
| 2023-04-18 | Millwall | 0-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2022-11-02 | Birmingham | 0-0 | Millwall | Championship |
| 2022-04-23 | Birmingham | 2-2 | Millwall | Championship |
| 2021-12-04 | Millwall | 3-1 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2021-02-17 | Millwall | 2-0 | Birmingham | Championship |
| 2020-11-28 | Birmingham | 0-0 | Millwall | Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Watford vs Lincoln 2026-11-03
- Preston vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- Derby v Norwich — match page 2026-11-03
- QPR vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Charlton vs Bolton 2026-11-03
- Portsmouth v Swansea — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Birmingham, previous: Lincoln vs Birmingham prediction
- Birmingham, next: Birmingham vs Swansea: odds and pick
- Millwall, previous: Millwall – Derby, 2026-10-31
- Millwall, next: West Brom – Millwall, 2026-11-07