West Brom vs Southampton preview
In the Championship fixture between West Brom and Southampton, the 1X2 probabilities show West Brom at 39% and Southampton at 34%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. West Brom's expected goals stand at 1.40, while Southampton's is 1.57, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 61%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. However, the recent form shows West Brom with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Southampton has 4 wins in their last 6. This could influence the outcome, as Southampton has a stronger record in their last 10 encounters, winning 7 times against West Brom's 1 win.
West Brom vs Southampton: model vs market
| Source | West Brom | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 34% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.36, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
West Brom vs Southampton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on West Brom, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-31.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | 2.55 | 2.30 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.36 | -0.34 |
| Southampton | 2.54 | 3.00 | +0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
West Brom and Southampton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (West Brom / Southampton)
- 1.16 / 1.43
- Defence rating (West Brom / Southampton)
- 0.90 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
West Brom vs Southampton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: West Brom goals. Columns: Southampton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
West Brom vs Southampton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for West Brom vs Southampton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 39% | 2.57 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Southampton | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (West Brom or draw) | 66% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Southampton) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win by 2+ | 16% | 6.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
West Brom and Southampton recent form
West Brom
3W 1D 2L
Southampton
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
West Brom at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Southampton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: West Brom at home only, Southampton away only.
Injuries & availability
West Brom absences
-
M. Johnston
broken leg
-
N. Galves
knee injury
- T. Collyer injury
Southampton absences
-
C. Larin
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
West Brom vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: West Brom 1 · draws 2 · Southampton 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | West Brom | 1-1 | Southampton | England Championship |
| 2025-12-09 | Southampton | 3-2 | West Brom | England Championship |
| 2024-05-17 | Southampton | 3-1 | West Brom | Championship |
| 2024-05-12 | West Brom | 0-0 | Southampton | Championship |
| 2024-02-16 | West Brom | 0-2 | Southampton | Championship |
| 2023-11-11 | Southampton | 2-1 | West Brom | Championship |
| 2021-04-12 | West Brom | 3-0 | Southampton | Premier League |
| 2020-10-04 | Southampton | 2-0 | West Brom | Premier League |
| 2018-02-17 | West Brom | 1-2 | Southampton | FA Cup |
| 2018-02-03 | West Brom | 2-3 | Southampton | Premier League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Watford vs Lincoln 2026-11-03
- Preston vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- Derby v Norwich — match page 2026-11-03
- QPR vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Charlton vs Bolton 2026-11-03
- Portsmouth v Swansea — match page 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- West Brom, previous: West Ham vs West Brom prediction
- West Brom, next: West Brom – Millwall, 2026-11-07
- Southampton, previous: Southampton v QPR analysis
- Southampton, next: Preston vs Southampton prediction