Portsmouth vs Swansea preview
In the Championship fixture between Portsmouth and Swansea, the 1X2 probabilities show Portsmouth at 34%, Swansea at 36%, and a draw at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score has a 49% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 42%.
Portsmouth's recent form shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, while Swansea has 5 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches. The head-to-head record favors Swansea with 2 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 encounters. A potential factor that could influence the outcome is Portsmouth's recent inconsistency, which may affect their performance against a strong Swansea side.
Portsmouth vs Swansea: model vs market
| Source | Portsmouth | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| Market | 33% | 29% | 37% |
| Published | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Portsmouth vs Swansea odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Swansea, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth | 2.60 | 2.80 | +0.20 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.17 | -0.21 |
| Swansea | 2.63 | 2.51 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Portsmouth and Swansea expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Portsmouth / Swansea)
- 0.91 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Portsmouth / Swansea)
- 0.84 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Portsmouth vs Swansea score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Portsmouth goals. Columns: Swansea goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Portsmouth vs Swansea goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Portsmouth vs Swansea
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 34% | 2.94 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Swansea | 36% | 2.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.04 |
| No | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Portsmouth or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Swansea) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win by 2+ | 14% | 7.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Portsmouth and Swansea recent form
Portsmouth
3W 2D 1L
Swansea
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Portsmouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swansea away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Portsmouth at home only, Swansea away only.
Injuries & availability
Portsmouth absences
- B. Arthur back injury
- C. Bishop knee injury
-
C. Ogilvie
knee injury
- J. Swift knee injury
-
K. Anderson
overload
-
L. Brooke-Smith
ankle injury
Swansea absences
-
C. Burgess
achilles tendon injury
- M. K. Yeo injury
- Ronald hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Portsmouth vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Portsmouth 1 · draws 1 · Swansea 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Portsmouth | 1-2 | Swansea | England Championship |
| 2025-12-09 | Swansea | 1-0 | Portsmouth | England Championship |
| 2025-01-01 | Portsmouth | 4-0 | Swansea | Championship |
| 2024-11-30 | Swansea | 2-2 | Portsmouth | Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Watford vs Lincoln 2026-11-03
- Preston vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- Derby v Norwich — match page 2026-11-03
- QPR vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Charlton vs Bolton 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Portsmouth, previous: Burnley vs Portsmouth: odds and pick
- Portsmouth, next: Portsmouth vs Stoke City: odds and pick
- Swansea, previous: Swansea vs Blackburn prediction
- Swansea, next: Birmingham vs Swansea: odds and pick