QPR vs Burnley preview
In the fixture between QPR and Burnley, QPR has a 49% chance to win compared to Burnley's 25%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an expected goals of 2.10 for QPR and 1.24 for Burnley. This suggests a strong attacking performance from QPR, which could lead to "Over 2.5 goals" at 65% and "both teams to score" at 63%.
However, the recent form shows QPR with mixed results (L-W-L-W-D-D) and Burnley struggling (D-L-L-D-W-D), which could impact the match outcome. Additionally, Burnley has a better head-to-head record with 5 wins in the last 10 encounters, which may influence their performance despite the current statistics.
QPR vs Burnley: model vs market
| Source | QPR | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices QPR below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.04, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
QPR vs Burnley odds movement
Median bookmaker price on QPR, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 2.12 | 1.98 | -0.15 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.64 | +0.04 |
| Burnley | 3.20 | 3.58 | +0.38 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
QPR and Burnley expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (QPR / Burnley)
- 1.20 / 0.93
- Defence rating (QPR / Burnley)
- 1.09 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
QPR vs Burnley score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: QPR goals. Columns: Burnley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
QPR vs Burnley goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for QPR vs Burnley
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Burnley | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (QPR or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Burnley) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win by 2+ | 35% | 2.87 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
QPR and Burnley recent form
QPR
2W 2D 2L
Burnley
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
QPR at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Burnley away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: QPR at home only, Burnley away only.
Injuries & availability
QPR absences
- A. S. Mbengue knee injury
- N. Madsen injury
- R. Burrell inactive
-
T. Lamptey
inactive
Burnley absences
- A. Broja injury
- B. Amos inactive
-
B. Humphreys
muscle injury
-
H. Mejbri
hamstring injury
-
J. Beyer
hamstring injury
-
J. Bruun Larsen
injury
- M. Obafemi inactive
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiye inactive
- S. Sambo inactive
- Z. Amdouni ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
QPR vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: QPR 2 · draws 3 · Burnley 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | QPR | 0-5 | Burnley | Championship |
| 2024-10-26 | Burnley | 0-0 | QPR | Championship |
| 2023-04-22 | Burnley | 1-2 | QPR | Championship |
| 2022-12-11 | QPR | 0-3 | Burnley | Championship |
| 2016-05-02 | Burnley | 1-0 | QPR | Championship |
| 2015-12-12 | QPR | 0-0 | Burnley | Championship |
| 2015-01-10 | Burnley | 2-1 | QPR | Premier League |
| 2014-12-06 | QPR | 2-0 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2014-02-01 | QPR | 3-3 | Burnley | Championship |
| 2013-10-26 | Burnley | 2-0 | QPR | Championship |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Watford vs Lincoln 2026-11-03
- Preston vs Sheffield Utd — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Blackburn vs Stoke City 2026-11-03
- Derby v Norwich — match page 2026-11-03
- Charlton vs Bolton 2026-11-03
- Portsmouth v Swansea — match page 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- QPR, previous: Southampton v QPR analysis
- QPR, next: QPR vs Lincoln: odds and pick
- Burnley, previous: Burnley vs Portsmouth: odds and pick
- Burnley, next: Cardiff v Burnley analysis