Charlton vs Bolton preview
In the Championship fixture between Charlton and Bolton, the 1X2 probabilities show Charlton at 39% and Bolton at 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Charlton, with a 7% chance. However, the recent form indicates that Charlton has struggled, with 3 losses and only 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Bolton has managed 2 wins in the same period.
Our model suggests a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 65%. Expected goals are 1.47 for Charlton and 1.80 for Bolton. With a confidence grade of C, the predictions could be affected by Charlton's poor recent performance or if Bolton's form improves significantly.
Charlton vs Bolton: model vs market
| Source | Charlton | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Published | 38% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.42, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Charlton vs Bolton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Charlton, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-29.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 2.23 | 2.30 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.48 | +0.12 |
| Bolton | 3.06 | 2.90 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Charlton and Bolton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.27
- Attack rating (Charlton / Bolton)
- 0.70 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Charlton / Bolton)
- 1.36 / 1.44
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Charlton vs Bolton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Charlton goals. Columns: Bolton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Charlton vs Bolton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Charlton vs Bolton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 38% | 2.62 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Bolton | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Charlton or draw) | 65% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Bolton) | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlton win by 2+ | 15% | 6.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Charlton and Bolton recent form
Charlton
0W 2D 4L
Bolton
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Charlton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Charlton at home only, Bolton away only.
Injuries & availability
Charlton absences
-
C. Sichenje
knee injury
-
M. Godden
muscle injury
- R. Apter knee injury
Bolton absences
- E. Erhahon thigh injury
- J. McAtee knee injury
- J. Nelson inactive
- R. Hardie hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Charlton vs Bolton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Charlton 3 · draws 2 · Bolton 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-21 | Bolton | 1-2 | Charlton | League One |
| 2024-08-24 | Charlton | 2-0 | Bolton | League One |
| 2024-02-17 | Bolton | 3-3 | Charlton | League One |
| 2023-10-28 | Charlton | 0-2 | Bolton | League One |
| 2023-01-28 | Charlton | 1-2 | Bolton | League One |
| 2022-09-03 | Bolton | 3-1 | Charlton | League One |
| 2022-02-08 | Bolton | 2-1 | Charlton | League One |
| 2021-09-28 | Charlton | 1-4 | Bolton | League One |
| 2017-01-28 | Bolton | 1-2 | Charlton | League One |
| 2016-08-27 | Charlton | 1-1 | Bolton | League One |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- QPR vs Burnley — team news & stats 2026-11-03
- Portsmouth v Swansea — match page 2026-11-03
- Birmingham v Millwall — match page 2026-11-03
- West Brom vs Southampton — team news & stats 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Charlton, previous: Middlesbrough vs Charlton: odds and pick
- Charlton, next: Charlton vs Sheffield Utd prediction
- Bolton, previous: Bolton v Bristol City analysis
- Bolton, next: Derby – Bolton, 2026-11-06