Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff preview
Wolverhampton Wanderers have a 43% chance of winning against Cardiff, who sit at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%.
However, the recent form shows inconsistency, with Wolverhampton's last five matches resulting in W-D-W-L-L-W and Cardiff's at W-D-W-L-W-L. This could affect the outcome, as fluctuations in performance might lead to a different result than expected.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff: model vs market
| Source | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | -4% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
| Cardiff | 4.70 | 4.70 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Cardiff expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Cardiff)
- 1.03 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Cardiff)
- 0.86 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Columns: Cardiff goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Cardiff
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.33 | |
| Cardiff | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Cardiff) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+ | 22% | 4.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Wolverhampton Wanderers and Cardiff recent form
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3W 1D 2L
Cardiff
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wolverhampton Wanderers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
Cardiff away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home only, Cardiff away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bolton vs Bristol City 2026-10-31
- Middlesbrough v Charlton — match page 2026-10-31
- Swansea vs Blackburn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, previous: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Watford, 2026-10-24
- Cardiff, previous: Cardiff v Birmingham analysis