Burnley vs Portsmouth preview
In the Championship fixture between Burnley and Portsmouth, the 1X2 probabilities show Burnley at 42% to win, while Portsmouth sits at 31%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Burnley’s expected goals stand at 1.36, compared to Portsmouth's 1.69, suggesting a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a 62% likelihood, and there is a 59% chance of Over 2.5 goals. However, Burnley's recent form of L-L-D-W-D-L could hinder their performance, while Portsmouth's W-D-W-W-L-D suggests they are in better shape. This disparity in form could impact the outcome, making it less predictable.
Burnley vs Portsmouth: model vs market
| Source | Burnley | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Published | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Edge | -4% | 0% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Burnley vs Portsmouth odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Burnley, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 2.01 | 2.01 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
| Portsmouth | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Burnley and Portsmouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.04
- Attack rating (Burnley / Portsmouth)
- 1.02 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Burnley / Portsmouth)
- 1.34 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burnley vs Portsmouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Portsmouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burnley vs Portsmouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burnley vs Portsmouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Portsmouth | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burnley or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Portsmouth) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win by 2+ | 14% | 7.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Burnley and Portsmouth recent form
Burnley
1W 2D 3L
Portsmouth
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burnley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portsmouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Portsmouth away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bolton vs Bristol City 2026-10-31
- Middlesbrough v Charlton — match page 2026-10-31
- Swansea vs Blackburn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Burnley, previous: Lincoln vs Burnley prediction
- Portsmouth, previous: Portsmouth vs Millwall prediction