Bolton vs Bristol City preview
Bolton faces Bristol City with a 35% chance of winning, while Bristol City has a 38% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at 9%. Both teams to score is at 51%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides.
Bolton's expected goals stand at 1.28, slightly higher than Bristol City's 1.15. However, Bolton's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Bristol City, on the other hand, has struggled, with only one win in their last six games. This could lead to a lower-scoring match than anticipated.
Bolton vs Bristol City: model vs market
| Source | Bolton | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | +1% | +1% | -2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Bolton vs Bristol City odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bristol City, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 2.72 | 2.72 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.45 | -0.05 |
| Bristol City | 2.35 | 2.38 | +0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bolton and Bristol City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.43
- Attack rating (Bolton / Bristol City)
- 1.05 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Bolton / Bristol City)
- 1.34 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bolton vs Bristol City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bolton goals. Columns: Bristol City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bolton vs Bristol City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bolton vs Bristol City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bolton | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 | |
| Bristol City | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bolton or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Bristol City) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol City win by 2+ | 13% | 7.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bolton and Bristol City recent form
Bolton
3W 1D 2L
Bristol City
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bolton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bolton at home only, Bristol City away only.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Middlesbrough v Charlton — match page 2026-10-31
- Swansea vs Blackburn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Bolton, previous: Bolton – Middlesbrough, 2026-10-23
- Bristol City, previous: Stoke City vs Bristol City: odds and pick