Southampton vs QPR preview
Southampton faces QPR with a 46% chance of winning compared to QPR's 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time according to our model. Southampton's expected goals stand at 1.71, while QPR's is lower at 1.28.
Both teams to score has a probability of 60%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 57%. Recent form shows Southampton with three wins and a draw in their last five matches, while QPR has two wins, two draws, and a loss. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Southampton vs QPR: model vs market
| Source | Southampton | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Market | 54% | 24% | 23% |
| Published | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Southampton vs QPR odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Southampton, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 1.73 | 1.73 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| QPR | 4.12 | 4.12 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Southampton and QPR expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Southampton / QPR)
- 1.28 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Southampton / QPR)
- 0.84 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Southampton vs QPR score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Southampton goals. Columns: QPR goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Southampton vs QPR goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Southampton vs QPR
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 52% | 1.93 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| QPR | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Southampton or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or QPR) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Southampton and QPR recent form
Southampton
4W 1D 1L
QPR
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Southampton at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-0
- Win rate
- 83%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
QPR away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Southampton at home only, QPR away only.
Southampton vs QPR head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Southampton 2 · draws 0 · QPR 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Southampton | 5-0 | QPR | England Championship |
| 2025-11-05 | QPR | 1-2 | Southampton | England Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bolton vs Bristol City 2026-10-31
- Middlesbrough v Charlton — match page 2026-10-31
- Swansea vs Blackburn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Southampton, previous: West Ham vs Southampton: odds and pick
- QPR, previous: QPR v Swansea analysis