Millwall vs Derby preview
In the fixture between Millwall and Derby, our model gives Millwall a 54% chance to win, with a predicted scoreline of 1-0 at 10%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals stands at 52%, while both teams to score is at 54%. Millwall has an expected goals figure of 1.76 compared to Derby's 1.02, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Millwall has recorded L-D-L-W-D-D in their last six matches, while Derby's form is D-L-L-D-D-L. With Derby struggling to secure wins, their chances may be limited, but unexpected performances could change the dynamics of the match.
Millwall vs Derby: model vs market
| Source | Millwall | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Millwall vs Derby odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Millwall, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.70 | 1.70 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.74 | +0.00 |
| Derby | 4.60 | 4.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Millwall and Derby expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.77
- Attack rating (Millwall / Derby)
- 1.00 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Millwall / Derby)
- 1.13 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Millwall vs Derby score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Millwall goals. Columns: Derby goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Millwall vs Derby goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Millwall vs Derby
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Derby | 20% | 4.91 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Millwall or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Derby) | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Millwall win by 2+ | 31% | 3.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Millwall and Derby recent form
Millwall
1W 3D 2L
Derby
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Millwall at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Derby away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Millwall at home only, Derby away only.
Millwall vs Derby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Millwall 1 · draws 1 · Derby 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Millwall | 1-0 | Derby | England Championship |
| 2025-12-10 | Derby | 1-1 | Millwall | England Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Bolton vs Bristol City 2026-10-31
- Middlesbrough v Charlton — match page 2026-10-31
- Swansea vs Blackburn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Millwall, previous: Portsmouth vs Millwall prediction
- Derby, previous: Sheffield Utd v Derby analysis