Swansea vs Blackburn preview
Swansea faces Blackburn with a 49% chance to win, while Blackburn has a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time according to our model. Swansea's expected goals are 1.30, and Blackburn's are slightly higher at 1.40.
Both teams to score has a 56% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%. Recent form shows Swansea with three wins in their last six matches, while Blackburn has four wins in that same period. However, Swansea's recent losses could impact their performance, and Blackburn's ability to score more than their expected goals could change the outcome.
Swansea vs Blackburn: model vs market
| Source | Swansea | Draw | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 21% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Swansea vs Blackburn odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Swansea, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea | 1.73 | 1.73 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Blackburn | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Swansea and Blackburn expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Swansea / Blackburn)
- 0.93 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Swansea / Blackburn)
- 1.00 / 0.98
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Swansea vs Blackburn score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Swansea goals. Columns: Blackburn goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Swansea vs Blackburn goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Swansea vs Blackburn
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Blackburn | 25% | 3.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Swansea or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Blackburn) | 51% | 1.94 | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win by 2+ | 15% | 6.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Swansea and Blackburn recent form
Swansea
4W 0D 2L
Blackburn
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Swansea at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackburn away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Swansea at home only, Blackburn away only.
Swansea vs Blackburn head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Swansea 2 · draws 0 · Blackburn 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Swansea | 3-1 | Blackburn | England Championship |
| 2025-09-30 | Blackburn | 1-2 | Swansea | England Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bolton vs Bristol City 2026-10-31
- Middlesbrough v Charlton — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Swansea, previous: QPR v Swansea analysis
- Blackburn, previous: Blackburn – Wrexham, 2026-10-24