Middlesbrough vs Charlton preview
Middlesbrough faces Charlton with a 75% probability of winning, while Charlton has just a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Middlesbrough's expected goals of 2.91 compared to Charlton's 1.03. The model also suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 61%.
However, Middlesbrough's recent form shows some inconsistency with three draws in their last six matches. Meanwhile, Charlton's form is poor, with five losses in their last six games. This could affect the outcome, especially if Middlesbrough fails to convert their chances or if Charlton manages to surprise with a better performance.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton: model vs market
| Source | Middlesbrough | Draw | Charlton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Market | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Published | 74% | 16% | 10% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Middlesbrough vs Charlton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Middlesbrough, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1.27 | 1.27 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.70 | 5.70 | +0.00 |
| Charlton | 8.84 | 8.84 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Middlesbrough and Charlton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Middlesbrough / Charlton)
- 1.56 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Middlesbrough / Charlton)
- 1.09 / 1.30
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Middlesbrough goals. Columns: Charlton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Middlesbrough vs Charlton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 74% | 1.36 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.25 | |
| Charlton | 10% | 9.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Middlesbrough or draw) | 90% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Charlton) | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win by 2+ | 56% | 1.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Middlesbrough and Charlton recent form
Middlesbrough
3W 3D 0L
Charlton
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Middlesbrough at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Middlesbrough at home only, Charlton away only.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Middlesbrough 1 · draws 0 · Charlton 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Middlesbrough | 0-1 | Charlton | England Championship |
| 2025-12-09 | Charlton | 1-2 | Middlesbrough | England Championship |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Norwich v Watford — match page 2026-10-31
- Wolverhampton Wanderers v Cardiff — match page 2026-10-31
- Southampton vs QPR — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Burnley vs Portsmouth 2026-10-31
- West Ham v West Brom — match page 2026-10-31
- Millwall vs Derby — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bolton vs Bristol City 2026-10-31
- Swansea vs Blackburn — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Middlesbrough, previous: Bolton – Middlesbrough, 2026-10-23
- Charlton, previous: Charlton vs Norwich: odds and pick