Updated

League One · Matchday 12

Cambridge United vs Wycombe

· Abbey Stadium, Cambridge

Alin prediction Cambridge United to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Cambridge UnitedDrawWycombe

Cambridge United vs Wycombe preview

Cambridge United face Wycombe with a 62% chance of winning, while the most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 10% probability. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams to score at 62%.

However, the confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty. Wycombe's recent form shows a mix of results, including 2 wins but also 3 draws and a loss, which could impact their performance. Cambridge United's recent form includes 3 wins, but they have also drawn twice, indicating they may not be invincible at home.

Cambridge United vs Wycombe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCambridge UnitedDrawWycombe
Model62%21%17%
Market———
Published62%21%17%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Cambridge United and Wycombe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.28Cambridge United
1.14Wycombe
Total expected goals
3.42
Attack rating (Cambridge United / Wycombe)
1.00 / 1.18
Defence rating (Cambridge United / Wycombe)
0.81 / 1.54

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cambridge United vs Wycombe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 2.9% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1 6.6% 9.4% 4.9% 1.8% 0.7% 2 8.5% 9.7% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 3 6.4% 7.4% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 4+ 6.3% 7.1% 4.1% 1.6% 0.6%

Rows: Cambridge United goals. Columns: Wycombe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cambridge United vs Wycombe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 45%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cambridge United vs Wycombe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cambridge United62%1.61
Draw21%4.78
Wycombe17%5.86
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.51
Under 2.534%2.98
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.63
Double chance1X (Cambridge United or draw)83%1.21
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Wycombe)38%2.63
Handicap -1Cambridge United win by 2+40%2.47
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Cambridge United and Wycombe recent form

Cambridge United 3W 3D 0L
Wycombe 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cambridge United at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-1
Win rate
60%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wycombe away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 55% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cambridge United at home only, Wycombe away only.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Cambridge United to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Cambridge United