AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town preview
AFC Wimbledon faces Mansfield Town with a 32% chance of winning compared to 39% for Mansfield. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.18 for AFC Wimbledon and 1.33 for Mansfield Town. The probability for both teams to score stands at 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides.
Recent form shows AFC Wimbledon with 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, while Mansfield Town has 3 wins and 3 losses in the same period. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome. The match could deviate from predictions if either team fails to convert their chances or if defensive errors occur.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town: model vs market
| Source | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 32% | 29% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (AFC Wimbledon / Mansfield Town)
- 0.67 / 1.12
- Defence rating (AFC Wimbledon / Mansfield Town)
- 1.01 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AFC Wimbledon goals. Columns: Mansfield Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Wimbledon | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Mansfield Town | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AFC Wimbledon or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Mansfield Town) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win by 2+ | 18% | 5.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AFC Wimbledon and Mansfield Town recent form
AFC Wimbledon
2W 2D 2L
Mansfield Town
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AFC Wimbledon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Mansfield Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: AFC Wimbledon at home only, Mansfield Town away only.
AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 0 · draws 2 · Mansfield Town 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Mansfield Town | 2-2 | AFC Wimbledon | League One |
| 2025-12-13 | AFC Wimbledon | 0-0 | Mansfield Town | League One |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Burton Albion v Bradford — match page 2026-10-20
- Oxford United vs Wigan 2026-10-20
- Doncaster v Stockport County — match page 2026-10-20
- Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Luton vs Barnsley 2026-10-20
- Stevenage v Plymouth — match page 2026-10-20
- Cambridge United vs Wycombe — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- AFC Wimbledon, previous: Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon prediction
- Mansfield Town, previous: Mansfield Town vs Oxford United: odds and pick