Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon preview
In the upcoming match between Sheffield Wednesday and AFC Wimbledon, the 1X2 probabilities show Sheffield Wednesday at 58% to win, while AFC Wimbledon sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline according to our model is 1-0, with a 15% chance of that outcome.
Sheffield Wednesday has an expected goals figure of 1.58, while AFC Wimbledon is at 0.69. The model suggests a 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 41% likelihood for both teams to score. However, recent form indicates that Sheffield Wednesday has drawn three of their last five matches, which could impact their performance.
Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon: model vs market
| Source | Sheffield Wednesday | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | +2% | +4% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Wednesday, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday | 1.67 | 1.66 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.98 | 3.94 | -0.04 |
| AFC Wimbledon | 4.56 | 4.55 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sheffield Wednesday and AFC Wimbledon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.27
- Attack rating (Sheffield Wednesday / AFC Wimbledon)
- 1.06 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Sheffield Wednesday / AFC Wimbledon)
- 0.87 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sheffield Wednesday goals. Columns: AFC Wimbledon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Wednesday | 56% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.46 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sheffield Wednesday or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or AFC Wimbledon) | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Wednesday win by 2+ | 32% | 3.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Sheffield Wednesday and AFC Wimbledon recent form
Sheffield Wednesday
3W 3D 0L
AFC Wimbledon
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sheffield Wednesday at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AFC Wimbledon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday at home only, AFC Wimbledon away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Leicester vs Doncaster 2026-10-17
- Wigan v Reading — match page 2026-10-17
- Barnsley vs Cambridge United 2026-10-17
- Bradford v Stevenage — match page 2026-10-17
- Plymouth vs Huddersfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Wycombe vs Notts County 2026-10-17
- Leyton Orient v Blackpool — match page 2026-10-17
- Stockport County vs Bromley — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Sheffield Wednesday, previous: Huddersfield – Sheffield Wednesday, 2026-10-10
- Sheffield Wednesday, next: Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday prediction
- AFC Wimbledon, previous: Plymouth vs AFC Wimbledon: odds and pick
- AFC Wimbledon, next: AFC Wimbledon – Mansfield Town, 2026-10-20