Bradford vs Stevenage preview
In the League One fixture between Bradford and Stevenage, the 1X2 probabilities show Bradford at 42%, Stevenage at 22%, and a draw at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 18% chance, suggesting a low-scoring match. Bradford's expected goals stand at 0.98, while Stevenage's is lower at 0.63, indicating a potential struggle for the visitors to find the net.
However, the match could see different outcomes if both teams manage to score, as the probability for both teams to score is 30%. Additionally, the recent form shows Bradford unbeaten in their last six matches, while Stevenage has mixed results. This could affect the final result, making it less predictable.
Bradford vs Stevenage: model vs market
| Source | Bradford | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 37% | 22% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Published | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Edge | -7% | +9% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.98 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bradford vs Stevenage odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bradford, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradford | 1.93 | 1.92 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Stevenage | 3.90 | 3.90 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bradford and Stevenage expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.61
- Attack rating (Bradford / Stevenage)
- 0.80 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Bradford / Stevenage)
- 0.56 / 0.84
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bradford vs Stevenage score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bradford goals. Columns: Stevenage goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bradford vs Stevenage goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 30%
- No goals (0–0)
- 21%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bradford vs Stevenage
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bradford | 47% | 2.15 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Stevenage | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22% | 4.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 30% | 3.28 |
| No | 70% | 1.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bradford or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Stevenage) | 53% | 1.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bradford win by 2+ | 17% | 6.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Bradford and Stevenage recent form
Bradford
4W 2D 0L
Stevenage
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bradford at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bradford at home only, Stevenage away only.
Bradford vs Stevenage head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Bradford 0 · draws 1 · Stevenage 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Bradford | 0-1 | Stevenage | League One |
| 2025-10-25 | Stevenage | 1-1 | Bradford | League One |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Leicester vs Doncaster 2026-10-17
- Wigan v Reading — match page 2026-10-17
- Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Barnsley vs Cambridge United 2026-10-17
- Plymouth vs Huddersfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Wycombe vs Notts County 2026-10-17
- Leyton Orient v Blackpool — match page 2026-10-17
- Stockport County vs Bromley — team news & stats 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Bradford, previous: Bradford vs Leyton Orient: odds and pick
- Bradford, next: Burton Albion vs Bradford prediction
- Stevenage, previous: Stevenage vs Wigan: odds and pick
- Stevenage, next: Stevenage v Plymouth analysis