Stevenage vs Plymouth preview
In the League One match between Stevenage and Plymouth, both teams have a 36% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. Both teams to score has a probability of 55%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 49%.
Stevenage's recent form shows 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Plymouth has 5 wins and 1 loss in the same period. The head-to-head record indicates that Stevenage has 0 wins against Plymouth, who has 1 win and 1 draw in their last 2 encounters. This context could affect the match outcome, despite the close probabilities.
Stevenage vs Plymouth: model vs market
| Source | Stevenage | Draw | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 36% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Stevenage and Plymouth expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Stevenage / Plymouth)
- 0.95 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Stevenage / Plymouth)
- 0.84 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Stevenage vs Plymouth score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Stevenage goals. Columns: Plymouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Stevenage vs Plymouth goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Stevenage vs Plymouth
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Plymouth | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Stevenage or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Plymouth) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Stevenage win by 2+ | 17% | 6.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Stevenage and Plymouth recent form
Stevenage
3W 2D 1L
Plymouth
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Stevenage at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Plymouth away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Stevenage at home only, Plymouth away only.
Stevenage vs Plymouth head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Stevenage 0 · draws 1 · Plymouth 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | Plymouth | 1-0 | Stevenage | League One |
| 2026-01-01 | Stevenage | 1-1 | Plymouth | League One |
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- Doncaster v Stockport County — match page 2026-10-20
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- Luton vs Barnsley 2026-10-20
- Cambridge United vs Wycombe — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Stevenage, previous: Bradford v Stevenage analysis
- Plymouth, previous: Plymouth vs Huddersfield: odds and pick