Oxford United vs Wigan preview
In the League One fixture between Oxford United and Wigan, the 1X2 probabilities show Oxford United at 63%, while Wigan sits at 12%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Oxford United has an expected goals figure of 1.79, compared to Wigan's 0.67, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 42%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 45%. If Wigan's recent form improves, it could challenge Oxford's expected dominance in this match.
Oxford United vs Wigan: model vs market
| Source | Oxford United | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 24% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 24% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.67.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Oxford United and Wigan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.46
- Attack rating (Oxford United / Wigan)
- 1.24 / 0.63
- Defence rating (Oxford United / Wigan)
- 0.90 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oxford United vs Wigan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oxford United goals. Columns: Wigan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oxford United vs Wigan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oxford United vs Wigan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oxford United | 63% | 1.58 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Wigan | 12% | 8.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.39 |
| No | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oxford United or draw) | 88% | 1.14 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Wigan) | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Handicap -1 | Oxford United win by 2+ | 38% | 2.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Oxford United and Wigan recent form
Oxford United
4W 1D 1L
Wigan
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oxford United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wigan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oxford United at home only, Wigan away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Peterborough 2026-10-20
- Burton Albion v Bradford — match page 2026-10-20
- AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Doncaster v Stockport County — match page 2026-10-20
- Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Luton vs Barnsley 2026-10-20
- Stevenage v Plymouth — match page 2026-10-20
- Cambridge United vs Wycombe — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Oxford United, previous: Mansfield Town vs Oxford United: odds and pick
- Wigan, previous: Wigan vs Reading: odds and pick