Burton Albion vs Bradford preview
In the League One fixture between Burton Albion and Bradford, the 1X2 probabilities show Bradford at 40% and Burton Albion at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15% chance of occurring. Bradford's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Burton Albion has 2 losses in their last 3 games.
The expected goals suggest Burton Albion will score 0.79 and Bradford 1.07. With a 37% chance for both teams to score and a 29% probability for Over 2.5 goals, the match could still deviate from the predicted outcome if Burton Albion improves their attacking performance. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Burton Albion vs Bradford: model vs market
| Source | Burton Albion | Draw | Bradford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 34% | 40% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 34% | 40% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Burton Albion and Bradford expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.86
- Attack rating (Burton Albion / Bradford)
- 0.95 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Burton Albion / Bradford)
- 1.13 / 0.56
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burton Albion vs Bradford score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burton Albion goals. Columns: Bradford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burton Albion vs Bradford goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burton Albion vs Bradford
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burton Albion | 25% | 3.97 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Bradford | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 29% | 3.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.69 |
| No | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burton Albion or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| X2 (draw or Bradford) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bradford win by 2+ | 17% | 5.91 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Burton Albion and Bradford recent form
Burton Albion
1W 2D 3L
Bradford
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burton Albion at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Bradford away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burton Albion at home only, Bradford away only.
Burton Albion vs Bradford head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Burton Albion 2 · draws 0 · Bradford 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Burton Albion | 2-1 | Bradford | League One |
| 2025-11-08 | Bradford | 1-2 | Burton Albion | League One |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Peterborough 2026-10-20
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- Luton vs Barnsley 2026-10-20
- Stevenage v Plymouth — match page 2026-10-20
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Before and after this match
- Burton Albion, previous: Peterborough – Burton Albion, 2026-10-17
- Bradford, previous: Bradford v Stevenage analysis
- Bradford, next: Bradford vs Peterborough prediction