Peterborough vs Burton Albion preview
In the League One fixture, Peterborough has a 44% chance to win against Burton Albion, who has a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with a 56% probability for Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score.
Peterborough's recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Burton Albion has 1 win in their last 6 as well. The expected goals suggest Peterborough at 1.63 and Burton Albion at 1.29. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Peterborough vs Burton Albion: model vs market
| Source | Peterborough | Draw | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 25% | 27% |
| Edge | -6% | +2% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.29.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Peterborough vs Burton Albion odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Peterborough, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 1.84 | 1.85 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.85 | -0.05 |
| Burton Albion | 3.65 | 3.60 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Peterborough and Burton Albion expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.92
- Attack rating (Peterborough / Burton Albion)
- 0.97 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Peterborough / Burton Albion)
- 1.14 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Peterborough vs Burton Albion score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Peterborough goals. Columns: Burton Albion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Peterborough vs Burton Albion goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Peterborough vs Burton Albion
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Peterborough | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Burton Albion | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Peterborough or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Burton Albion) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Peterborough win by 2+ | 24% | 4.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Peterborough and Burton Albion recent form
Peterborough
1W 2D 3L
Burton Albion
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Peterborough at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burton Albion away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Peterborough at home only, Burton Albion away only.
Peterborough vs Burton Albion head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Peterborough 4 · draws 4 · Burton Albion 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Peterborough | 1-1 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 2025-10-18 | Burton Albion | 0-1 | Peterborough | League One |
| 2025-01-01 | Burton Albion | 2-2 | Peterborough | League One |
| 2024-12-04 | Peterborough | 0-1 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 2024-03-09 | Burton Albion | 1-3 | Peterborough | League One |
| 2023-11-25 | Peterborough | 4-0 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 2023-03-14 | Burton Albion | 2-5 | Peterborough | League One |
| 2022-10-08 | Peterborough | 1-1 | Burton Albion | League One |
| 2021-03-06 | Burton Albion | 2-1 | Peterborough | League One |
| 2020-10-27 | Peterborough | 2-2 | Burton Albion | League One |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Milton Keynes Dons v Luton — match page 2026-10-17
- Leicester vs Doncaster 2026-10-17
- Wigan v Reading — match page 2026-10-17
- Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Barnsley vs Cambridge United 2026-10-17
- Bradford v Stevenage — match page 2026-10-17
- Plymouth vs Huddersfield — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Wycombe vs Notts County 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Peterborough, previous: Leicester v Peterborough analysis
- Peterborough, next: Huddersfield vs Peterborough: odds and pick
- Burton Albion, previous: Doncaster – Burton Albion, 2026-10-10
- Burton Albion, next: Burton Albion vs Bradford prediction