Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday preview
In the League One fixture between Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday, the 1X2 probabilities show Sheffield Wednesday at 37% to win, compared to Notts County's 31% and a draw at 32%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.02 for Notts County and 1.14 for Sheffield Wednesday.
While both teams to score stands at 45% and Over 2.5 goals at 37%, the recent form indicates potential challenges. Notts County has lost their last 3 matches, while Sheffield Wednesday has won 4 of their last 6. This disparity in form could impact the outcome, despite the statistical probabilities.
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday: model vs market
| Source | Notts County | Draw | Sheffield Wednesday |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 32% | 37% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 32% | 37% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.17
- Attack rating (Notts County / Sheffield Wednesday)
- 0.80 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Notts County / Sheffield Wednesday)
- 0.91 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Notts County goals. Columns: Sheffield Wednesday goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Notts County vs Sheffield Wednesday
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 31% | 3.22 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.22 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Notts County or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Sheffield Wednesday) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Wednesday win by 2+ | 16% | 6.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Notts County and Sheffield Wednesday recent form
Notts County
1W 2D 3L
Sheffield Wednesday
3W 3D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Notts County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sheffield Wednesday away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Notts County at home only, Sheffield Wednesday away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Peterborough 2026-10-20
- Burton Albion v Bradford — match page 2026-10-20
- AFC Wimbledon vs Mansfield Town — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Oxford United vs Wigan 2026-10-20
- Doncaster v Stockport County — match page 2026-10-20
- Blackpool vs Milton Keynes Dons — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Luton vs Barnsley 2026-10-20
- Stevenage v Plymouth — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Notts County, previous: Wycombe vs Notts County prediction
- Sheffield Wednesday, previous: Sheffield Wednesday vs AFC Wimbledon prediction