Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Amnéville vs Sundhoffen

Alin prediction Sundhoffen to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AmnévilleDrawSundhoffen
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Amnéville vs Sundhoffen preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Amnéville and Sundhoffen, the 1X2 probabilities show Sundhoffen at 53%, while Amnéville sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has a 10% chance of occurring. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both predicted at 61%, indicating potential for an open game.

However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. If Amnéville can exceed their expected goals of 1.23, they might challenge Sundhoffen, who has a higher expected goal count of 1.93. This could lead to a different result than anticipated.

Amnéville vs Sundhoffen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAmnévilleDrawSundhoffen
Model23%24%53%
Market———
Published23%24%53%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Amnéville and Sundhoffen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Amnéville
1.93Sundhoffen
Total expected goals
3.15
Attack rating (Amnéville / Sundhoffen)
1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Amnéville / Sundhoffen)
1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Amnéville vs Sundhoffen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Amnéville goals. Columns: Sundhoffen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Amnéville vs Sundhoffen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Amnéville vs Sundhoffen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Amnéville23%4.32
Draw24%4.14
Sundhoffen53%1.90
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Amnéville or draw)47%2.11
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Sundhoffen)77%1.30
Handicap -1Sundhoffen win by 2+31%3.22
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Prediction snapshot Sundhoffen to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Sundhoffen