Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

ASPTT Dijon vs Selongey

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Selongey to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ASPTT DijonDrawSelongey

ASPTT Dijon vs Selongey: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceASPTT DijonDrawSelongey
Model22%27%51%
Market———
Published22%27%51%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 1.00.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ASPTT Dijon and Selongey expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.00ASPTT Dijon
1.67Selongey
Total expected goals
2.67
Attack rating (ASPTT Dijon / Selongey)
0.83 / 0.90
Defence rating (ASPTT Dijon / Selongey)
0.94 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ASPTT Dijon vs Selongey score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 10.4% 9.7% 5.4% 3.3% 1 5.8% 12.7% 9.7% 5.4% 3.3% 2 3.5% 5.8% 4.8% 2.7% 1.6% 3 1.2% 1.9% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: ASPTT Dijon goals. Columns: Selongey goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ASPTT Dijon vs Selongey goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ASPTT Dijon vs Selongey

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2ASPTT Dijon22%4.54
Draw27%3.73
Selongey51%1.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%2.01
Under 2.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.11
Double chance1X (ASPTT Dijon or draw)49%2.05
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Selongey)78%1.28
Handicap -1Selongey win by 2+29%3.48
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

ASPTT Dijon and Selongey recent form

ASPTT Dijon 0W 0D 1L
Selongey 0W 1D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

ASPTT Dijon vs Selongey head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: ASPTT Dijon 0 · draws 1 · Selongey 1.

ASPTT DijonDrawsSelongey
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-04-13Selongey4-2ASPTT DijonNational 3 - Group J
2023-12-02ASPTT Dijon0-0SelongeyNational 3 - Group J

Other 1/128-finals fixtures