Atlas Paillade vs Cannes preview
In the Coupe de France fixture, Atlas Paillade has a 11% chance to win, while Cannes stands at 73%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% probability. The expected goals for Atlas Paillade is 1.04, compared to Cannes' 2.80, indicating a significant offensive advantage for Cannes.
The model suggests a 74% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance for both teams to score. However, Atlas Paillade's recent form shows a loss, while Cannes has won four of their last six matches. This discrepancy in form could impact the outcome, making the predictions less certain.
Atlas Paillade vs Cannes: model vs market
| Source | Atlas Paillade | Draw | Cannes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 11% | 16% | 73% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.80 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atlas Paillade and Cannes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Atlas Paillade / Cannes)
- 0.83 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Atlas Paillade / Cannes)
- 1.04 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atlas Paillade vs Cannes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atlas Paillade goals. Columns: Cannes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atlas Paillade vs Cannes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atlas Paillade vs Cannes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlas Paillade | 11% | 9.37 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.25 | |
| Cannes | 73% | 1.36 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atlas Paillade or draw) | 27% | 3.75 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Cannes) | 89% | 1.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cannes win by 2+ | 54% | 1.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Atlas Paillade and Cannes recent form
Atlas Paillade
0W 0D 1L
Cannes
4W 0D 2L
Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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