Balma vs Castanet

Balma vs Castanet: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.22.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Balma and Castanet expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.23

Attack rating (Balma / Castanet)

1.00 / 1.00

Defence rating (Balma / Castanet)

1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Balma vs Castanet score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Balma goals. Columns: Castanet goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Balma vs Castanet goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

61%

No goals (0–0)

5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.