Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Buxerolles vs Sablé

Full time0 – 7

Alin prediction was Sablé to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BuxerollesDrawSablé

Buxerolles vs Sablé: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBuxerollesDrawSablé
Model28%26%47%
Market———
Published28%26%47%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.28.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Buxerolles and Sablé expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Buxerolles
1.76Sablé
Total expected goals
3.05
Attack rating (Buxerolles / Sablé)
1.00 / 0.88
Defence rating (Buxerolles / Sablé)
1.00 / 1.05

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Buxerolles vs Sablé score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 7.3% 7.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1 5.0% 11.8% 9.5% 5.6% 3.7% 2 3.9% 6.9% 6.1% 3.6% 2.4% 3 1.7% 2.9% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4%

Rows: Buxerolles goals. Columns: Sablé goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Buxerolles vs Sablé goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Buxerolles vs Sablé

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Buxerolles28%3.63
Draw26%3.87
Sablé47%2.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.73
Under 2.542%2.37
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.65
No40%2.53
Double chance1X (Buxerolles or draw)53%1.87
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Sablé)72%1.38
Handicap -1Sablé win by 2+27%3.76
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Buxerolles and Sablé recent form

Sablé 0W 1D 1L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures