Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Chatou vs Les Ulis

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Les Ulis to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ChatouDrawLes Ulis

Chatou vs Les Ulis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChatouDrawLes Ulis
Model27%24%49%
Market———
Published27%24%49%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.37.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Chatou and Les Ulis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Chatou
1.90Les Ulis
Total expected goals
3.28
Attack rating (Chatou / Les Ulis)
1.00 / 0.94
Defence rating (Chatou / Les Ulis)
1.00 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chatou vs Les Ulis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 6.2% 6.8% 4.3% 3.2% 1 4.2% 10.8% 9.4% 6.0% 4.4% 2 3.6% 6.8% 6.5% 4.1% 3.0% 3 1.6% 3.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Chatou goals. Columns: Les Ulis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chatou vs Les Ulis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chatou vs Les Ulis

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chatou27%3.70
Draw24%4.11
Les Ulis49%2.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.75
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.55
No35%2.83
Double chance1X (Chatou or draw)51%1.95
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Les Ulis)73%1.37
Handicap -1Les Ulis win by 2+28%3.54
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chatou and Les Ulis recent form

Les Ulis 0W 0D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures