Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Contres vs Linas-Montlhery

Full time0 – 4

Alin prediction was Linas-Montlhery to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ContresDrawLinas-Montlhery

Contres vs Linas-Montlhery: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceContresDrawLinas-Montlhery
Model23%25%52%
Market———
Published23%25%52%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.13.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Contres and Linas-Montlhery expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13Contres
1.85Linas-Montlhery
Total expected goals
2.98
Attack rating (Contres / Linas-Montlhery)
1.00 / 0.94
Defence rating (Contres / Linas-Montlhery)
1.00 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Contres vs Linas-Montlhery score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 8.4% 8.7% 5.4% 3.8% 1 4.7% 11.7% 9.8% 6.0% 4.3% 2 3.2% 6.0% 5.5% 3.4% 2.4% 3 1.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Contres goals. Columns: Linas-Montlhery goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Contres vs Linas-Montlhery goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Contres vs Linas-Montlhery

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Contres23%4.43
Draw25%3.99
Linas-Montlhery52%1.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.76
Under 2.543%2.32
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (Contres or draw)48%2.10
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Linas-Montlhery)77%1.29
Handicap -1Linas-Montlhery win by 2+31%3.24
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Contres and Linas-Montlhery recent form

Linas-Montlhery 0W 1D 0L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

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