Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

FC 2 Rives 82 vs Trélissac

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Trélissac to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC 2 Rives 82DrawTrélissac

FC 2 Rives 82 vs Trélissac: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC 2 Rives 82DrawTrélissac
Model24%28%49%
Market———
Published24%28%49%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.04.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

FC 2 Rives 82 and Trélissac expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.04FC 2 Rives 82
1.59Trélissac
Total expected goals
2.63
Attack rating (FC 2 Rives 82 / Trélissac)
0.83 / 0.83
Defence rating (FC 2 Rives 82 / Trélissac)
0.94 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC 2 Rives 82 vs Trélissac score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.4% 10.2% 9.1% 4.8% 2.7% 1 6.3% 13.1% 9.5% 5.0% 2.8% 2 3.9% 6.2% 4.9% 2.6% 1.5% 3 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: FC 2 Rives 82 goals. Columns: Trélissac goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC 2 Rives 82 vs Trélissac goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 49%
Over 3.5 27%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC 2 Rives 82 vs Trélissac

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC 2 Rives 8224%4.18
Draw28%3.63
Trélissac49%2.06
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549%2.05
Under 2.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.12
Double chance1X (FC 2 Rives 82 or draw)51%1.94
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Trélissac)76%1.31
Handicap -1Trélissac win by 2+26%3.83
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC 2 Rives 82 and Trélissac recent form

FC 2 Rives 82 0W 0D 1L
Trélissac 0W 0D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

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