Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise: model vs market
| Source | Saint-Pauloise | Draw | La Tamponnaise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11% | 17% | 71% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 11% | 17% | 71% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 0.94.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Saint-Pauloise and La Tamponnaise expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (Saint-Pauloise / La Tamponnaise)
- 0.80 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Saint-Pauloise / La Tamponnaise)
- 1.27 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Saint-Pauloise goals. Columns: La Tamponnaise goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Saint-Pauloise vs La Tamponnaise
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Saint-Pauloise | 11% | 8.95 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.73 | |
| La Tamponnaise | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Saint-Pauloise or draw) | 29% | 3.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.21 | |
| X2 (draw or La Tamponnaise) | 89% | 1.13 | |
| Handicap -1 | La Tamponnaise win by 2+ | 52% | 1.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Saint-Pauloise and La Tamponnaise recent form
Saint-Pauloise
1W 0D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Sporting Baie-Mahault vs Siroco Les Abymes — team news & stats 2026-11-05
- Olympique Cayenne vs Etoile Matoury 2026-11-06
- Chambéry vs Grenoble 2026-11-12
- Dijon vs Orleans 2026-11-13
- St-Philbert Gd Lieu v La Roche VF — match page 2026-11-13
- La Neuvillette v Valenciennes — match page 2026-11-13
- Le Puy Foot vs Diables Noirs 2026-11-14