Marseille Endoume vs Toulon Prediction & Betting Tips 15/11/2026

Marseille Endoume vs Toulon preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Marseille Endoume and Toulon, the probabilities suggest a 23% chance for Marseille Endoume to win, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 53% chance for Toulon to take the victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Toulon's stronger expected goals of 1.93 compared to Marseille Endoume's 1.23.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both stand at 61%, indicating a high likelihood of an open match. However, the confidence grade is C, which means unexpected outcomes could arise, potentially affecting the predicted scoreline and goal totals.

Marseille Endoume vs Toulon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Marseille Endoume	Draw	Toulon
Model	23%	24%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	24%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Marseille Endoume and Toulon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Marseille Endoume

1.93Toulon

Total expected goals: 3.15
Attack rating (Marseille Endoume / Toulon): 1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Marseille Endoume / Toulon): 1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Marseille Endoume vs Toulon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Marseille Endoume goals. Columns: Toulon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Marseille Endoume vs Toulon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Marseille Endoume vs Toulon

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Marseille Endoume	23%	4.32
	Draw	24%	4.14
	Toulon	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.64
	Under 2.5	39%	2.57
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (Marseille Endoume or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Toulon)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Toulon win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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