Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Montigny vs Pontarlier

Full time0 – 5

Alin prediction was Pontarlier to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MontignyDrawPontarlier

Montigny vs Pontarlier: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMontignyDrawPontarlier
Model21%23%56%
Market———
Published21%23%56%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.25.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Montigny and Pontarlier expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Montigny
2.11Pontarlier
Total expected goals
3.37
Attack rating (Montigny / Pontarlier)
1.00 / 1.04
Defence rating (Montigny / Pontarlier)
1.00 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Montigny vs Pontarlier score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.4% 6.4% 7.7% 5.4% 4.7% 1 3.4% 10.1% 9.7% 6.8% 5.9% 2 2.7% 5.7% 6.0% 4.3% 3.7% 3 1.1% 2.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6%

Rows: Montigny goals. Columns: Pontarlier goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Montigny vs Pontarlier goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 65%
Over 3.5 43%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Montigny vs Pontarlier

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Montigny21%4.68
Draw23%4.42
Pontarlier56%1.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565%1.53
Under 2.535%2.88
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.57
No36%2.76
Double chance1X (Montigny or draw)44%2.27
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Pontarlier)79%1.27
Handicap -1Pontarlier win by 2+35%2.87
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Montigny and Pontarlier recent form

Pontarlier 0W 1D 0L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

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