Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Montreuil vs Loon-Plage

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Loon-Plage to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MontreuilDrawLoon-Plage

Montreuil vs Loon-Plage: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMontreuilDrawLoon-Plage
Model21%24%55%
Market———
Published21%24%55%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.11.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Montreuil and Loon-Plage expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Montreuil
1.93Loon-Plage
Total expected goals
3.03
Attack rating (Montreuil / Loon-Plage)
0.98 / 0.94
Defence rating (Montreuil / Loon-Plage)
1.01 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Montreuil vs Loon-Plage score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 8.3% 8.9% 5.7% 4.3% 1 4.3% 11.3% 9.9% 6.4% 4.8% 2 2.9% 5.7% 5.5% 3.5% 2.6% 3 1.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 4+ 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Montreuil goals. Columns: Loon-Plage goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Montreuil vs Loon-Plage goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Montreuil vs Loon-Plage

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Montreuil21%4.84
Draw24%4.14
Loon-Plage55%1.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.71
Under 2.542%2.40
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.40
Double chance1X (Montreuil or draw)45%2.23
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Loon-Plage)79%1.26
Handicap -1Loon-Plage win by 2+33%3.02
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Montreuil and Loon-Plage recent form

Montreuil 2W 1D 1L
Loon-Plage 0W 1D 0L

Last 4 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures