Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

OCPAM vs Olympique Marcquois

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Olympique Marcquois to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 2

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
OCPAMDrawOlympique Marcquois

OCPAM vs Olympique Marcquois: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOCPAMDrawOlympique Marcquois
Model11%19%71%
Market———
Published11%19%71%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.85.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

OCPAM and Olympique Marcquois expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.85OCPAM
2.40Olympique Marcquois
Total expected goals
3.25
Attack rating (OCPAM / Olympique Marcquois)
0.80 / 1.21
Defence rating (OCPAM / Olympique Marcquois)
0.97 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

OCPAM vs Olympique Marcquois score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 8.6% 11.2% 9.0% 9.5% 1 2.5% 8.7% 9.5% 7.6% 8.0% 2 1.4% 3.3% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2%

Rows: OCPAM goals. Columns: Olympique Marcquois goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

OCPAM vs Olympique Marcquois goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for OCPAM vs Olympique Marcquois

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2OCPAM11%9.33
Draw19%5.40
Olympique Marcquois71%1.41
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.69
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.89
No47%2.12
Double chance1X (OCPAM or draw)29%3.42
12 (either side)81%1.23
X2 (draw or Olympique Marcquois)89%1.12
Handicap -1Olympique Marcquois win by 2+49%2.04
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

OCPAM and Olympique Marcquois recent form

OCPAM 0W 0D 2L
Olympique Marcquois 2W 0D 1L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures