Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

OM Cambrai vs Amiens

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was OM Cambrai to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
OM CambraiDrawAmiens

OM Cambrai vs Amiens: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOM CambraiDrawAmiens
Model48%25%27%
Market———
Published48%25%27%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.34.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

OM Cambrai and Amiens expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.76OM Cambrai
1.34Amiens
Total expected goals
3.10
Attack rating (OM Cambrai / Amiens)
1.00 / 0.67
Defence rating (OM Cambrai / Amiens)
1.00 / 1.46

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

OM Cambrai vs Amiens score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 5.0% 4.0% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.9% 11.7% 7.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.3% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.5% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 4+ 2.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: OM Cambrai goals. Columns: Amiens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

OM Cambrai vs Amiens goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for OM Cambrai vs Amiens

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2OM Cambrai48%2.08
Draw25%3.98
Amiens27%3.73
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.66
Under 2.540%2.51
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.63
Double chance1X (OM Cambrai or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Amiens)52%1.92
Handicap -1OM Cambrai win by 2+26%3.90
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

OM Cambrai and Amiens recent form

Amiens 0W 1D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures