Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Perros-Louannec vs Vannes

Full time0 – 7

Alin prediction was Vannes to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Perros-LouannecDrawVannes

Perros-Louannec vs Vannes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePerros-LouannecDrawVannes
Model24%24%51%
Market———
Published24%24%51%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.24.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Perros-Louannec and Vannes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.24Perros-Louannec
1.92Vannes
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (Perros-Louannec / Vannes)
1.00 / 0.94
Defence rating (Perros-Louannec / Vannes)
1.00 / 1.04

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Perros-Louannec vs Vannes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.0% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.6% 2.5% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Perros-Louannec goals. Columns: Vannes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Perros-Louannec vs Vannes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Perros-Louannec vs Vannes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Perros-Louannec24%4.13
Draw24%4.10
Vannes51%1.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.64
Under 2.539%2.57
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.62
Double chance1X (Perros-Louannec or draw)49%2.06
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Vannes)76%1.32
Handicap -1Vannes win by 2+31%3.24
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Perros-Louannec and Vannes recent form

Vannes 0W 0D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures