Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

RC Chambery vs Niort

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Niort to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RC ChamberyDrawNiort

RC Chambery vs Niort: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRC ChamberyDrawNiort
Model30%26%44%
Market———
Published30%26%44%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 1.37.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

RC Chambery and Niort expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37RC Chambery
1.70Niort
Total expected goals
3.07
Attack rating (RC Chambery / Niort)
1.00 / 0.83
Defence rating (RC Chambery / Niort)
1.00 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

RC Chambery vs Niort score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 6.8% 6.7% 3.8% 2.3% 1 5.3% 11.9% 9.2% 5.2% 3.2% 2 4.4% 7.4% 6.3% 3.6% 2.2% 3 2.0% 3.4% 2.9% 1.6% 1.0% 4+ 0.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5%

Rows: RC Chambery goals. Columns: Niort goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

RC Chambery vs Niort goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for RC Chambery vs Niort

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2RC Chambery30%3.29
Draw26%3.87
Niort44%2.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.69
Under 2.541%2.45
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.64
Double chance1X (RC Chambery or draw)56%1.78
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Niort)70%1.44
Handicap -1Niort win by 2+24%4.21
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

RC Chambery and Niort recent form

Niort 0W 0D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures