Rochefort vs Juventus Papus Prediction & Betting Tips 15/11/2026

Rochefort vs Juventus Papus preview

In the Coupe de France match between Rochefort and Juventus Papus, the 1X2 probabilities suggest Juventus Papus has a strong chance at 65%, compared to Rochefort's 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at an 8% probability. The expected goals indicate Rochefort could score 1.51 while Juventus Papus is projected to net 2.87.

The model also shows a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams to score at 74%. However, Rochefort's recent form, with a record of D-W-L-L-D-W, may impact their performance against a team with a significantly higher expected goal count.

Rochefort vs Juventus Papus: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Rochefort	Draw	Juventus Papus
Model	18%	17%	65%
Market	—	—	—
Published	18%	17%	65%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.51.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Rochefort and Juventus Papus expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Rochefort

2.87Juventus Papus

Total expected goals: 4.38
Attack rating (Rochefort / Juventus Papus): 1.23 / 1.00
Defence rating (Rochefort / Juventus Papus): 1.49 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rochefort vs Juventus Papus score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 3.0% 5.1% 4.9% 7.1% 1 1.3% 6.0% 7.8% 7.4% 10.8% 2 1.4% 4.1% 5.9% 5.6% 8.2% 3 0.7% 2.1% 3.0% 2.8% 4.1% 4+ 0.4% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5% 2.2%

Rows: Rochefort goals. Columns: Juventus Papus goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rochefort vs Juventus Papus goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 94%

Over 2.5 81%

Over 3.5 64%

Both teams to score: 74%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rochefort vs Juventus Papus

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Rochefort	18%	5.70
	Draw	17%	5.74
	Juventus Papus	65%	1.54
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	1.23
	Under 2.5	19%	5.34
Both teams to score	Yes	74%	1.35
	No	26%	3.86
Double chance	1X (Rochefort or draw)	35%	2.86
	12 (either side)	83%	1.21
	X2 (draw or Juventus Papus)	82%	1.21
Handicap -1	Juventus Papus win by 2+	46%	2.17
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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