Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

SAG Cestas vs Bayonne

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Bayonne to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SAG CestasDrawBayonne

SAG Cestas vs Bayonne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSAG CestasDrawBayonne
Model36%26%38%
Market———
Published36%26%38%
Edge———

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

SAG Cestas and Bayonne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51SAG Cestas
1.57Bayonne
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (SAG Cestas / Bayonne)
1.00 / 0.80
Defence rating (SAG Cestas / Bayonne)
1.00 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SAG Cestas vs Bayonne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 6.1% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7% 1 5.8% 12.0% 8.6% 4.5% 2.5% 2 5.2% 8.2% 6.5% 3.4% 1.9% 3 2.6% 4.1% 3.2% 1.7% 1.0% 4+ 1.4% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5%

Rows: SAG Cestas goals. Columns: Bayonne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SAG Cestas vs Bayonne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SAG Cestas vs Bayonne

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SAG Cestas36%2.75
Draw26%3.83
Bayonne38%2.66
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.47
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.59
No37%2.69
Double chance1X (SAG Cestas or draw)62%1.60
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Bayonne)64%1.57
Handicap -1Bayonne win by 2+20%5.12
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SAG Cestas and Bayonne recent form

Bayonne 0W 0D 2L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures