Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Saint-Brieuc vs Rouen

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Rouen to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Saint-BrieucDrawRouen

Saint-Brieuc vs Rouen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSaint-BrieucDrawRouen
Model19%27%54%
Market———
Published19%27%54%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.88.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 4 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Saint-Brieuc and Rouen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.88Saint-Brieuc
1.66Rouen
Total expected goals
2.53
Attack rating (Saint-Brieuc / Rouen)
0.94 / 0.81
Defence rating (Saint-Brieuc / Rouen)
1.04 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Saint-Brieuc vs Rouen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 12.0% 10.9% 6.0% 3.6% 1 5.8% 12.7% 9.6% 5.3% 3.2% 2 3.0% 5.0% 4.2% 2.3% 1.4% 3 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Saint-Brieuc goals. Columns: Rouen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Saint-Brieuc vs Rouen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 46%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Saint-Brieuc vs Rouen

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Saint-Brieuc19%5.24
Draw27%3.72
Rouen54%1.85
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.546%2.16
Under 2.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.06
No51%1.94
Double chance1X (Saint-Brieuc or draw)46%2.18
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Rouen)81%1.24
Handicap -1Rouen win by 2+31%3.27
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Saint-Brieuc and Rouen recent form

Saint-Brieuc 0W 0D 1L
Rouen 1W 1D 2L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures