Stade Bordelais vs Mazeres Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Stade Bordelais vs Mazeres preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Stade Bordelais and Mazeres, the 1X2 probabilities show Mazeres at 54%, while Stade Bordelais is at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance of occurring. This indicates that Mazeres is favored to win based on the model's assessment.

Both teams to score has a 66% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%. However, Stade Bordelais's expected goals are only 1.35, which is lower than Mazeres's 2.09. If Stade Bordelais can exceed their expected goals, the match outcome could differ from the predictions.

Stade Bordelais vs Mazeres: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Stade Bordelais	Draw	Mazeres
Model	23%	23%	54%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	23%	54%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.35.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Stade Bordelais and Mazeres expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.35Stade Bordelais

2.09Mazeres

Total expected goals: 3.44
Attack rating (Stade Bordelais / Mazeres): 1.00 / 1.09
Defence rating (Stade Bordelais / Mazeres): 1.00 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stade Bordelais vs Mazeres score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.1% 5.8% 7.0% 4.9% 4.2% 1 3.4% 10.0% 9.5% 6.6% 5.6% 2 2.9% 6.1% 6.4% 4.4% 3.8% 3 1.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.0% 1.7% 4+ 0.6% 1.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8%

Rows: Stade Bordelais goals. Columns: Mazeres goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stade Bordelais vs Mazeres goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 67%

Over 3.5 45%

Both teams to score: 66%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stade Bordelais vs Mazeres

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Stade Bordelais	23%	4.26
	Draw	23%	4.38
	Mazeres	54%	1.86
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	67%	1.50
	Under 2.5	33%	3.01
Both teams to score	Yes	66%	1.52
	No	34%	2.92
Double chance	1X (Stade Bordelais or draw)	46%	2.16
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Mazeres)	77%	1.31
Handicap -1	Mazeres win by 2+	33%	3.05
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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