Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen vs Oberlauterbach

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Oberlauterbach to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Strasbourg KoenigshoffenDrawOberlauterbach

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen vs Oberlauterbach: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStrasbourg KoenigshoffenDrawOberlauterbach
Model20%22%58%
Market———
Published20%22%58%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.25.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen and Oberlauterbach expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Strasbourg Koenigshoffen
2.27Oberlauterbach
Total expected goals
3.53
Attack rating (Strasbourg Koenigshoffen / Oberlauterbach)
1.04 / 1.00
Defence rating (Strasbourg Koenigshoffen / Oberlauterbach)
1.15 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen vs Oberlauterbach score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 5.8% 7.6% 5.8% 5.6% 1 2.8% 9.2% 9.5% 7.2% 7.0% 2 2.3% 5.2% 6.0% 4.5% 4.4% 3 1.0% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 4+ 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8%

Rows: Strasbourg Koenigshoffen goals. Columns: Oberlauterbach goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen vs Oberlauterbach goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 68%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Strasbourg Koenigshoffen vs Oberlauterbach

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Strasbourg Koenigshoffen20%5.00
Draw22%4.63
Oberlauterbach58%1.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.568%1.47
Under 2.532%3.12
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.54
No35%2.86
Double chance1X (Strasbourg Koenigshoffen or draw)42%2.40
12 (either side)78%1.28
X2 (draw or Oberlauterbach)80%1.25
Handicap -1Oberlauterbach win by 2+38%2.60
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen and Oberlauterbach recent form

Strasbourg Koenigshoffen 0W 0D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

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