Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Talange vs Baume Dames

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Baume Dames to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TalangeDrawBaume Dames

Talange vs Baume Dames: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTalangeDrawBaume Dames
Model21%23%55%
Market———
Published21%23%55%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.20.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Talange and Baume Dames expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Talange
2.03Baume Dames
Total expected goals
3.24
Attack rating (Talange / Baume Dames)
1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Talange / Baume Dames)
1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Talange vs Baume Dames score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 7.0% 8.1% 5.5% 4.5% 1 3.8% 10.6% 9.8% 6.6% 5.4% 2 2.8% 5.8% 5.9% 4.0% 3.2% 3 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 1.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Talange goals. Columns: Baume Dames goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Talange vs Baume Dames goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Talange vs Baume Dames

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Talange21%4.68
Draw23%4.30
Baume Dames55%1.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.59
Under 2.537%2.68
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.62
Double chance1X (Talange or draw)45%2.24
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Baume Dames)79%1.27
Handicap -1Baume Dames win by 2+34%2.95
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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