Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Tinteniac vs Concarneau

Full time1 – 4

Alin prediction was Concarneau to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TinteniacDrawConcarneau

Tinteniac vs Concarneau: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTinteniacDrawConcarneau
Model18%21%61%
Market———
Published18%21%61%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.20.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tinteniac and Concarneau expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Tinteniac
2.36Concarneau
Total expected goals
3.56
Attack rating (Tinteniac / Concarneau)
1.00 / 1.20
Defence rating (Tinteniac / Concarneau)
1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tinteniac vs Concarneau score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 5.9% 7.9% 6.2% 6.4% 1 2.6% 8.9% 9.5% 7.5% 7.7% 2 2.1% 4.9% 5.7% 4.5% 4.6% 3 0.8% 1.9% 2.3% 1.8% 1.9% 4+ 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7%

Rows: Tinteniac goals. Columns: Concarneau goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tinteniac vs Concarneau goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
64%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tinteniac vs Concarneau

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Tinteniac18%5.58
Draw21%4.84
Concarneau61%1.63
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.45
Under 2.531%3.20
Both teams to scoreYes64%1.55
No36%2.81
Double chance1X (Tinteniac or draw)39%2.59
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Concarneau)82%1.22
Handicap -1Concarneau win by 2+41%2.43
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Tinteniac and Concarneau recent form

Concarneau 3W 1D 1L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures