Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Vandœuvre vs Epinal

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Epinal to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
VandœuvreDrawEpinal

Vandœuvre vs Epinal: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceVandœuvreDrawEpinal
Model27%23%51%
Market———
Published27%23%51%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.50.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Vandœuvre and Epinal expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.50Vandœuvre
2.11Epinal
Total expected goals
3.61
Attack rating (Vandœuvre / Epinal)
1.00 / 1.04
Defence rating (Vandœuvre / Epinal)
1.00 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Vandœuvre vs Epinal score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.6% 4.8% 6.0% 4.2% 3.7% 1 3.2% 9.4% 9.0% 6.4% 5.5% 2 3.0% 6.4% 6.8% 4.8% 4.1% 3 1.5% 3.2% 3.4% 2.4% 2.1% 4+ 0.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.2% 1.1%

Rows: Vandœuvre goals. Columns: Epinal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Vandœuvre vs Epinal goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 49%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Vandœuvre vs Epinal

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Vandœuvre27%3.75
Draw23%4.41
Epinal51%1.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.43
Under 2.530%3.33
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.45
No31%3.25
Double chance1X (Vandœuvre or draw)49%2.03
12 (either side)77%1.29
X2 (draw or Epinal)73%1.36
Handicap -1Epinal win by 2+31%3.24
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Vandœuvre and Epinal recent form

Epinal 0W 0D 1L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures